Wild Card Game: Orioles 5, Rangers 1

So here they are. The Orioles finally made the play-offs, and they had to travel to Texas to face a team that's beat up on them some this year. They used their best starters trying to win the AL East, leaving them with Joe Saunders as the only really option to take the mound. The same Joe Saunders who was 0-6 with a 9.38 ERA in his career at the Rangers' ballpark. And Texas had Yu Darvish (3.90 ERA, 5.1 fWAR) going for them. The odds were certainly against the O's, as they have been all year.

The Good:

• Joe Saunders! I was hopping for Saunders to get through the line-up once, and then maybe stay in until he saw Josh Hamilton again. But Buck left him out there inning after inning - not even pulling him after he had retired Hamilton for a third time. And it worked! Sure he was helped out by three double plays, but if you had offered me a 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K line from Saunders, I would have taken it 100% of the time. It was definitely stressful to watch - especially when he came out with some shaky control - but Joe deserved every standing ovation O's fans were giving him from their living rooms.
• Darren O'Day relieved Saunders after the lefty was allowed to retire Adrian Beltre (seemed crazy at the time, but hey, Buck Magic). O'Day did what he's done so often this year - and then some; 2 IP, 1 H (infield single), 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. Credit to Andy MacPhail* for picking him up off wavers... from the Rangers.
• Brian Matusz was asked to get out Josh Hamilton, and absolutely dominated him - three pitches, three strikes.
• Jim Johnson made things a little too exciting in the 9th, but escaped a bases loaded situation to shut the door.
• Orioles batters came through when it counted over and over again, with RBIs from JJ Hardy, Adam Jones, Nate McLouth, and Manny Machado. Nothing fancy, just some clutch hits.

* Thanks to commenter Greg for pointing out that O'Day was actually picked up in the window between when MacPhail left and Dan Duquette came aboard. So another thing to probably thank Buck for.

The Bad:

• Generally speaking, the offense did very little against Darvish. Hard to really hold that against them too much though. 7 of the team's 8 hits were singles, and they only walked once compared to 12 K's. But hey, the O's beat James Shields and his 15 strike-outs this week too.

The Final:

Wow. Just amazing, amazing stuff. The O's are going to the "real" playoffs! Oriole Magic in full effect. We'll see how long it can continue, as the Birds face the Yankees, with whom they split the season series (though the did outscore New York 92-90). But they're playing with house money... and winning.

The Camden Highball: From Yellowstone with Hope and Fear

On the podcast today, we are in the midst of playoff fever.  I (Jon Shepherd) am joined by Nick Faleris from Baseball Prospectus.  We discuss a good deal about the wild card match up between the Orioles and Rangers.  We have worries and concerns, but it is unmistakable to be in a position to run the table in October is a great place for Baltimore to be.  Camden Depot is also proud to reintroduce the book club and we are eager to present Weaver on Strategy as our first selection.  We will post more in depth on the Book Club later.  You have two weeks to acquire the book and read the first third of it.  The recording was made Thursday night (October 4, 2012).

Episode 2 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Music - Indiana by ABADABAD (in full at end of podcast)
00:00:20 Greetings from Yellowstone (or a bit North)
00:01:57 A One Game Playoff with Rangers is What the O's Want
00:05:00 Saunders is an Odd Choice
00:08:24 Fear of Darvish
00:10:10 Constant Concern and Good Fortune
00:17:45 A Bullpen is Hard
00:21:55 Camden Depot Book Club: Weaver on Strategy

We are available on iTunes.  It stands to be quite an exciting series of games between now and then.  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

Who Should the Orioles Start in a Wild Card Game?

The Orioles have clinched a play-off spot. Wow. That feels a little weird to write after the last 14 years (especially given expectations going into this season), but it's true. The team is guaranteed at least a Wild Card spot, and given the schedules of the respective teams (O's on the road versus the Rays, while the Yankees host the Red Sox at home), that's the most likely route the Birds will need to go through to reach the World Series. With Oakland finishing the year against the Rangers and the Orioles holding a one-game lead over the A's, I'd expect the Friday AL Wild Card game to be played here in Baltimore. The question is, who should start that game for the O's?

The options more or less shake out as:

Wei-Yin Chen - 4.11 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 4.36 xFIP this year. He'd be going on short rest, is already approaching 200 innings, and has looked a little gassed in recent outings as it is. As he's been one of the team's better starters this year, not being able to run him out multiple times in a potential ALDS isn't the best. Plus, skipping him over and giving him some extra rest would not only allow Chen to pitch twice in the five-game series but could improve his performance there as well.

Chris Tillman - 2.78 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.36 xFIP. By my count, he's on schedule to pitch the last game of the season in Tampa, but depending on where the O's sit in the divisional race he could probably be bumped back. I'd think having Tillman start twice in the ALDS would be the preferred path for the Orioles, which could happen if he just throws on the side and then starts Game One on Sunday the 7th and Game Five on Friday the 12th. There's no other real way to see him twice, unless he starts game 162 against the Rays but only goes a couple innings so that he could come back on short rest.

Miguel Gonzalez - 3.45 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.70 xFIP. He's had a great surprise season, but I'd say he's just plain not as good as Chen or Tillman. He's also on schedule to pitch game 161, which would knock out the Wild Card game but put him on schedule to pitch games one and five of the ALDS. Given the Orioles Magic going on this season, counting on Gonzalez in that way just might be wild enough to work. If he doesn't start against the Rays, he could pitch the Wild Card game - that would entail a longer lay-off (similar to Tillman not pitching until Game One).

Joe Saunders - 4.07 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 4.26 xFIP. He's the only guy who would pitch the Wild Card game on exactly normal rest, and I would think the Orioles would prefer starting one of the three above guys twice in the ALDS instead.

Steve Johnson - 2.86 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.87 xFIP (as a starter). He would also being going on mostly normal rest (one extra day), and has done a really nice job for the team since his call-up, but with the leg injury he may not be able to go (he's getting an MRI on it).

Jason Hammel - 3.43 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.47 xFIP. He's pretty clearly been the team's best starter this year, but he hasn't pitched in almost three weeks and has only 8.2 IP since mid-July. Even if he's healthy, I'm not sure you can trust him to make the start in a win-or-go-home game. If he's available and the O's are magically way ahead, letting him come out for an inning or two might be useful to see if he can start in the ALDS, but I wouldn't count on it.

I'd probably be inclined to start Saunders, while having Johnson (or some other "starter") coming in from the pen relatively early (maybe 2-3 innings from Joe then 2 from the next guy). That would hopefully get the team into the mid-to-later innings where the "normal" bullpen can take over.

In fact, the Orioles could easily throw starter after starter at the A's (matching righties and lefties) for 2 innings at a time. With the ability to set their roster for just the one game, the staff could be something like Saunders, Steve Johnson, Bundy, Phillips, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Ayala, Patton, O'Day, Strop, Jim Johnson. Then they could drop Bundy/Phillips/third guy for Tillman/Chen/Gonzalez for the ALDS. The O's could even match up* pretty well, theoretically, with Saunders (L) - Johnson (R) - Matusz (L) -Arrieta (R) - Patton (L) - Hunter (R) each taking an inning before Strop, O'Day, and Johnson finish things off. With an off-day both before and after the Wild Card game, that shouldn't really mess things up for the pen.

* The A's have a higher OPS against righties than lefties this year (.717 vs. .705), but a higher OPS against lefty starters than righty starters (.724 vs. .707). So yeah, there's that.

Is it worth using two of the teams lesser starters instead of just going with their #1 (whoever you think that might be - pick a name out of a hat, maybe)? In his career, Joe Saunders has a 2.3 K/BB ratio his first time through the order. That drops to 1.8 the second time, and 1.4 the third time. Chris Tillman has a 2.5 K/BB ratio this year overall. Gonzalez is at 2.1 overall (and has actually struck out way more batters in his second go through the order than the first). So while Saunders may not be the Orioles' best starter, using him for a few innings - and just looking at 2012, Saunders has a 5.1 K/BB the first time through the order, declining to 2.3 on the second - and then going to the pen should pretty much replicate what you'd expect to get from riding things out with someone else. That gap between the various O's starters is relatively small, and the variance in a single game is going to wash out whatever differences are there. That is, they probably wouldn't be costing themselves much if anything in the Wild Card game, while potentially also setting themselves up better for the following series.

ALDS rotation would then be something like:

One: Tillman
Two: Chen
Three: Gonzalez
Four: Saunders/Johnson
Five: Tillman

In game four (or three, if they so choose), the O's would be in a position to do the same kind of as in the Wild Card game, having Saunders start with Johnson (if healthy) ready to come in after a couple trips through the order. If Buck preferred, he could also swap Tillman and Chen, allowing the lefty to pitch twice.

If the division title is still in play though (and there's a fair chance it will be), then obviously all bets are off. Using Gonzalez and Tillman in Tampa Bay to try to win the East leaves Saunders for the Wild Card game by default, but also means that the O's don't have a starter on normal rest (if Steve Johnson can't go) for a potential Thursday tie-breaker with the Yankees, unless Hammel is back (I'd think doubtful). Then I guess Tommy Hunter or Brian Matusz or Jake Arrieta would be pressed into action, which probably wouldn't bode terribly well for the Orioles' chances considering none of those guys has started a game in over a month. It would also leave Tillman unable to start Game One of the ALDS on normal rest.

The O's could go for more of a "bullpen approach" in the tie-breaking game as well, but trying that and losing (having to settle for the Wild Card) could mean having to rely on Joe Saunders for 6-7 innings on Friday - those are some risky options. Really, it would be best if the Yankees got swept while the O's won tonight and then had Dylan Bundy and Chris Davis entertain us by starting Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Don't even care which of the two throws a no-hitter.

Jonathan Schoop From A Defensive Perspective

I really enjoyed writing the last post about the defensive side of the ball, so I decided to do some more defensive driven posts, next focusing on the other player directly affected by Manny's move to 3B, Jonathan Schoop.

I was inspired by Matt P. in the comments section, and I apologize for giving kind of a short answer with not much depth to it, but the reasoning was because I was thinking about writing this post and he was a step ahead of me. So, first up, let's talk about Schoop. He is the enigma to most fans this season, he has been Machado's double play partner for the better part of the last year between Frederick and Bowie, and has been moved around the infield from SS to 3B and later to 2B over his few professional seasons. This is generally unusual for a top 100 or so prospect (no. 82 on Baseball America's 2012 pre-season list) as you want young players to get comfortable, develop good fielding habits and really master their position. While he hasn't particularly excelled at any of the three spots, he has played fairly average at all three.

As usual with defense, statistics don't tell the whole picture here, and being in the minor leagues, the statistics kept are spotty at best. Looking solely at the errors he has made, in his four professional seasons, by year:

Age         Level        Position    Games   Errors

17          DOM           SS           67          20
18            RK             SS          54          18                 
19           A-/A+         SS          43          13
                                  2B          64           7              
                                  3B          23           8                            
20           AA              SS          39          8                 
                                  2B          88          13

Schoop has a career fielding % of .951, which is not very good, however, seeing him in the field he's not as bad as it sounds. He has a very strong arm, however, being slightly slower to the ball than other players drives him to hurry the throw to try to hide his slow footwork with his arm. The times I've seen him get in trouble or make errors, he was either slow to the ball laterally and rushed a throw off target, or when he would make a concentration mistake with his glove, such as a bobble, or picking the glove up before the ball gets to it. He has shown that he makes most of the solid plays where he doesn't have to range too far, he's got the arm to make up for some mistakes, but the longer the throw, the less likely that it would be on target. If I had to project him at a position defensively, I would say he's a 2B with a very strong arm. He seems the most comfortable there, however if he is being showcased as a trade chip, leaving him at SS makes the most sense for now to show teams that he can play adequate enough defense there to pair with his very solid bat. 

All in all, Schoop looks to be a good offensive prospect, and while he is still young and can improve, his defense needs some work, mostly his hands, and getting faster footwork, especially in the side to side direction. With 2B a glaring question mark this offseason, Schoop could be a person of interest if he's not traded and would make the offense even more formidable, however with defense given more emphasis in the latter half of the season, that could hurt him in a competition.              
                                                                  

Sunday Comics: Orioles Magicks

There's a Fullmetal Alchemist joke in here if you squint.

 

Matusz, Patton, Strop and Jim Johnson wanted to try Orioles Magic out for themselves, so they turned to alchemy. It just got Buck mad because they made a mess in the 'pen. Alchemy's not a clean science, folks.

If you know me or read some of the things I write over at Charm City Yakyuu, by the way, you'll know that I enjoy drawing Brian Matusz. He's awkward and goofy and that's a cartoonist's dream come true. 

See you with more art next week! (And once the offseason picks up in November, you might just see the return of my CCY segment Draw Your Orioles!)